北上深，为何仍不彻底“取消限购”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting approaches of Guangzhou and the "North-South" cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) regarding the lifting of housing purchase restrictions, highlighting Guangzhou's aggressive stance compared to the cautious approach of the latter cities [1][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Differences - Guangzhou has announced a complete removal of purchase restrictions by September 30, 2024, aiming to stabilize its declining housing market [2][4]. - In contrast, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are taking a gradual approach, with Beijing expected to lift restrictions by August 2025, followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen [2][5]. Group 2: Market Pressures - Guangzhou's decision to lift restrictions is driven by significant market pressure, with a reported decline of over 12% in second-hand home prices within a year and a prolonged inventory turnover period exceeding 24 months in some areas [7][9]. - The reliance on land finance in Guangzhou, which exceeds 40%, has also pressured the city to stimulate the housing market through the removal of restrictions [9][10]. Group 3: Demand Structure - The demand structure in Guangzhou is primarily local, with 75% of housing priced below 5 million, contrasting with the broader appeal of properties in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to national wealth [10][20]. - The gradual lifting of restrictions in Guangzhou has been accompanied by measures to mitigate speculative buying, such as price registration mechanisms and property tax trials [11][12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While a complete removal of restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is likely in the long term, it is deemed difficult in the short term due to the need for multiple conditions to be met [4][25]. - The article suggests that the future approach for these cities will likely involve incremental adjustments rather than an outright removal of restrictions, maintaining a cautious stance to prevent market overheating [26][27].