欧盟征收碳关税对中国高耗能产品出口的影响及对策分析

Core Insights - The EU's carbon tariff policy (CBAM) was proposed in 2021 and will officially be implemented in 2026, significantly impacting China's exports of high-energy-consuming products, particularly in the steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizer industries [1][5][7]. Impact on Export Costs - The implementation of the carbon tariff is projected to increase the export costs of China's high-energy-consuming products by 6%-19%, with the steel industry facing the most significant impact, potentially seeing costs rise by approximately 19% by 2034 [1][2][25]. - In the absence of China's carbon market inclusion, the steel industry may incur carbon tariffs amounting to nearly 20 billion yuan [1][25]. Industry-Specific Analysis - The steel industry is expected to experience a price increase of 14%-16% in the international market, while the US and Turkey, utilizing low-carbon steel production methods, will gain a competitive advantage [2][3]. - The fertilizer industry will see a cost increase of over 9%, while the aluminum and cement industries will experience increases of over 6% [1][25]. Recommendations for Mitigation - The report suggests prioritizing carbon reduction in the steel industry, aiming for a 24% reduction by 2030, and increasing the share of low-carbon steel production [2][3]. - It also recommends improving the carbon market framework in China and expanding exports of high-value-added products to mitigate the impact of the carbon tariff [2][3]. Trade Structure and Competitiveness - China's exports to the EU accounted for 16% of its total exports in 2022, with over 50% being high-energy-consuming products, indicating a significant reliance on these sectors [1][5][15]. - The report highlights the need for China to optimize its trade structure and deepen industrial cooperation with countries like Turkey and Japan to counteract the effects of the carbon tariff [2][3].