九个月36次破纪录！金价逼近3800美元，美联储与亚洲需求共推牛市

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with over 36 record-breaking days in 2025, and as of September 26, the spot gold price is reported at $3,749.07 per ounce, reflecting an annual increase of over 40% [1][3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will exceed $4,150 by mid-2026, driven by a combination of monetary policy, regional demand, and geopolitical risks [1][3] Monetary Policy - The initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has been a direct catalyst for the surge in gold prices. On September 17, the Fed announced a 25 basis point cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 3.50% [3] - The reduction in interest rates has led to lower U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar and reducing the cost of gold for non-U.S. currency holders. Market expectations for further rate cuts in October and December are at 91.9% and 78.6%, respectively [3] Regional Demand - Asian demand, particularly from China, has significantly supported gold prices. In Q2, global demand for gold bars and coins reached 307 tons, with China leading at 115 tons, a 44% year-on-year increase, while U.S. demand was only 9 tons [3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months and is attracting foreign central banks to store reserves through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, indicating a shift in traditional gold market dynamics [3] Geopolitical and Financial Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, have heightened market risk aversion, further driving demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - The concentration risk in the global financial system, with 90% exposure to U.S. assets, is prompting a shift towards gold for diversification, as highlighted by Singapore's sovereign wealth fund CEO [3] Structural Demand - Despite potential risks from inflation and market sentiment shifts, the structural demand for gold remains robust, with global central banks purchasing over 1,000 tons annually, reinforcing gold's status as a safe haven [4]