Core Viewpoint - The historical fluctuations in gold prices are deeply tied to global economic patterns, technological revolutions, and changes in the monetary system, with the current surge in gold prices reflecting a combination of loose monetary policies, weakened dollar credibility, and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [1][3][10] Historical Gold Market Cycles - The first major bull market in gold lasted from August 1971 to January 1980, with prices soaring from $35 to $850 per ounce, a cumulative increase of approximately 2328.57%, driven by the collapse of dollar credibility due to U.S. deficits and stagflation [2] - The second bull market spanned from February 2001 to August 2011, with prices rising from $251.9 to $1920.3 per ounce, a cumulative increase of about 662.3%, influenced by economic weakness following the dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis [2] - The current bull market, recognized as the third, began in 2022, with its driving forces being multifaceted pressures including political turmoil, fiscal challenges, and technological competition, rather than solely monetary policy [2][3] "De-dollarization" Trend - The global "de-dollarization" process is expected to accelerate by 2025, becoming a core driver for rising international gold prices, as central banks, including China's, increase their gold reserves [3][4] - A significant shift is observed as countries like Germany and Italy repatriate gold stored in the U.S., indicating a fundamental questioning of the safety of dollar assets [3] - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold reserves, reflecting strategic adjustments based on the expanding cracks in the dollar credit system [3] Current Drivers of Gold Prices - Global monetary policy easing is a primary factor driving gold prices upward, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4][5] - The weakening dollar index, which has dropped from around 108 to approximately 97.62, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating demand [5] - Political and economic uncertainties, including U.S. domestic political interventions and financial turmoil in emerging markets, have increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6] Structural Changes in the Gold Market - Continuous gold purchases by central banks provide a stable source of demand, with global gold ETF inflows reaching 473 tons since 2025, contrasting with net outflows in 2024 [6] - The potential shift from "diversification" to "strategic" gold purchases by central banks could lead to structural growth in official demand for gold [6][8] Future Price Outlook - In the next six months, international gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with potential to break through $3800 per ounce depending on U.S. Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments [7][10] - The baseline scenario predicts gold prices fluctuating between $3500 and $4500 per ounce over the next 12 months, with a central tendency around $3750 per ounce, reflecting a 15% to 30% increase from September 2025 levels [10] - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $6000 per ounce within 3 to 5 years, driven by the reconfiguration of the global monetary system and increasing official demand [8][10]
金价上涨的基本面因素均未实质性改变 新高可能只是上涨过程中的里程碑
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-28 06:20