美国学界力挺“大热门”沃勒接任美联储主席，但希望恐“落空”

Group 1 - The academic community overwhelmingly supports Christopher Waller as the best candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with 82% of surveyed economists favoring him, but only 20% believe he will actually secure the position in 2026 [1][2] - Political dynamics suggest that Kevin Hassett is viewed as a more likely candidate for the role, with 39% of respondents indicating he has better chances, despite no one expressing a desire for him to take the position [1][2] - Waller's independent stance on monetary policy has garnered academic support but may hinder his nomination due to the political preferences of the Trump administration, which favors candidates who align with its agenda [1][2] Group 2 - The new chair will face significant challenges in formulating monetary policy amid a weak labor market and inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with the Federal Reserve recently lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4-4.25% [3][4] - Most Federal Reserve officials are more concerned about slowing job growth than inflation risks, although surveyed economists warn of rising stagflation risks, where unemployment and inflation could rise simultaneously [3][4] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve complicates its decision-making, with historical tendencies showing a preference for prioritizing employment over inflation [4]