四季度还有戏!机构预测央行或单独下调5年期LPR 房贷利率有望再降?

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated interest rate cuts in China have not materialized, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining stable for four consecutive months, while the Federal Reserve has initiated a new easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut [1][2][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy Context - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, reflecting a cautious approach amid various economic pressures [1][5] - The Fed's recent rate cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25% marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of further cuts in the fourth quarter [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Domestic economic conditions, including weak inflation and pressures in the real estate market, have led to expectations for a follow-up rate cut in China to stabilize the RMB and stimulate economic recovery [2][5] - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on net interest margins, which have dropped to approximately 1.45%, limiting the scope for further rate reductions [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market Challenges - The stability of the real estate market is under threat, with 69 out of 70 major cities reporting a decline in second-hand housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities [6][9] - The core issues in the real estate market extend beyond financing costs, highlighting structural problems in supply and demand [7][9] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To address the real estate market's challenges, a combination of fiscal policy and structural adjustments is recommended, including optimizing market supply and enhancing demand through employment and income stability [9][11] - The government is encouraged to pause new land auctions and repurchase undeveloped land to alleviate supply pressures, aligning with recent policy directions [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for new monetary policy actions, including further rate cuts, is anticipated as the Fed's easing opens up more operational space for the PBOC [9][11] - The overall expectation is that with the gradual release of policy effects and ongoing economic recovery, the real estate market may stabilize over time [11]