凌通盛泰日本经济停滞源于双泡沫同时破裂

Core Insights - The fundamental reason for Japan's "lost 30 years" is the simultaneous bursting of both the stock and real estate bubbles in 1990, leading to long-term economic stagnation [3][4] - The simultaneous collapse of these bubbles is a critical pattern observed in economic theory, indicating that any economy experiencing such dual bubbles will inevitably face prolonged stagnation and recession [3][12] - The U.S. managed to recover from its dual bubble burst in 2008 due to its global monetary dominance, allowing it to engage in extensive quantitative easing [3][12] Economic Analysis - Aging population is often cited as a reason for Japan's economic decline; however, it is not the root cause. The primary issue remains the collapse of the real estate and stock markets, which severely impacted asset returns for individuals and businesses [4][12] - A study comparing aging rates and economic growth across various countries found no strong correlation between aging and long-term economic stagnation, suggesting that Japan's situation is unique [4][7] - The concept of "balance sheet recession" is introduced, where individuals and businesses focus on debt repayment due to the rapid decline in asset values, leading to reduced consumption and investment [5][12] Data Insights - Statistical analysis from 1980 to 2020 shows that while the aging population has increased, it does not correlate strongly with GDP growth rates in the world's most aged countries [7][11] - For instance, countries with aging rates exceeding 13% still managed to achieve average GDP growth rates of around 2.5% in the following decade, indicating that aging alone does not lead to economic stagnation [8][9] - Japan's GDP growth rates remained significantly lower than those of other aging countries, reinforcing the idea that factors beyond aging are responsible for its economic challenges [10][11] Current Implications - The current economic difficulties in China are attributed to a similar dual bubble scenario in the real estate and stock markets, which could lead to a situation akin to Japan's past if not addressed [12][13] - The potential for a dual bubble crisis in China highlights the importance of monitoring both real estate and stock market conditions to prevent long-term economic stagnation [12][13]