盾博：特朗普炒掉鲍威尔风波，法律红灯高悬，市场为何仍心惊？

Core Viewpoint - The recent social media post by Trump, depicting a humorous take on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlights the ongoing tension between political influence and central bank independence, raising concerns about potential market reactions to perceived threats to this independence [2][5]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has publicly criticized Powell and the Federal Reserve multiple times, suggesting that the recent interest rate cuts are insufficient and labeling Powell as "Mr. Too Late" [2]. - The Supreme Court has reaffirmed that the President cannot dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman without just cause, indicating that Trump's threats may be more symbolic than actionable [2][3]. - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's personnel decisions, including efforts to remove board member Lisa Cook, could undermine the institution's independence [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Federal Reserve has led to increased market volatility, as seen during Trump's previous criticisms of Powell in 2018 [2]. - Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that an unusual dismissal of Powell could lead to a significant spike in 10-year Treasury yields, reflecting investor concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [2]. - Despite the current low volatility in bond markets, there are warnings that political noise could amplify risks, especially as the election approaches [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Independence - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's focus remains on policies that benefit the American people, regardless of political pressures [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining market confidence, as any perceived erosion of this independence could lead to increased long-term interest rates [5]. - The current situation serves as a reminder that in the age of social media, the perception of central bank independence is as important as its legal standing [5].