黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.9.28）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, with a new high of 3791 reached on Tuesday, followed by a slight adjustment and subsequent recovery towards the end of the week, resulting in a six-week consecutive increase in prices [1]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The market is expected to be tense next week due to central bank dynamics, seasonal factors, and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy path and global economic data [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak next week, discussing economic outlook and monetary policy direction, amidst a divergence between the Fed's "dot plot" indicating only a 25 basis point rate cut by 2026 and market expectations of three rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown is at 66%, which could delay the release of key economic reports, including the non-farm payrolls and CPI, increasing uncertainty in policy decisions [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a clear upward trend, with the current movement being part of a larger five-wave structure that began at 3268, with the third wave currently in progress [6]. - Two potential scenarios for next week's gold price movement are outlined: 1. If gold remains below 3791, it may continue to adjust, with key support levels at 3722 and 3717 needing to be monitored for confirmation of a downward adjustment [7][10]. 2. If gold breaks above 3791, it would indicate a continuation of the upward trend, necessitating a reassessment of the current wave structure [13].