下周，黄金生死考验！

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold has successfully recorded six consecutive weeks of gains, with a weekly increase of approximately 75 points, closing around $3,762 [1] - The overall trend for gold is showing a fluctuating upward movement, with potential technical correction risks after the realization of interest rate cut expectations [19] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market indices experienced an overall increase, with the Dow Jones down 0.15%, S&P 500 down 0.31%, and Nasdaq down 0.65% [2] - The U.S. core PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with previous values, while the overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2][4] - Analysts suggest that the stable core PCE inflation may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate cut pace, with an 89.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] Group 3: Employment Data Predictions - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to be crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in October, with predictions of 50,000 to 54,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate stable at 4.3% [7][9] - A weak employment figure of around 50,000 jobs is viewed as favorable for the Federal Reserve, indicating a mild recession [9] Group 4: International Relations and Trade Policies - The Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs based on the number of chips in foreign electronic devices to encourage domestic manufacturing [7] - Tensions continue to escalate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with both sides increasing military actions and targeting energy infrastructure [15][17][18]