李立峰&张海燕‖A股、港股暂时的折返，慢牛即是长牛

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations this week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain strengthened significantly, driven by increased capital expenditure in AI by global tech giants and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology, leading to a 6.47% rise in the Sci-Tech 50 index. In contrast, the consumer sector weakened, with declines in social services, retail, light industry, and textile sectors [1] - Market liquidity showed marginal contraction, with net inflows of financing funds maintained. Stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 23.1 billion yuan this week. In the commodity market, internationally priced commodities strengthened, while domestically priced black commodities declined. The US dollar index rose, with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciated against the US dollar [1] Market Outlook - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a slow bull market continuing. After a trend-driven rise in July and August, there has been increased divergence in capital since September. With the upcoming long holiday, external capital inflow may slow down, leading to potential short-term fluctuations in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while some funds may prefer to position for the October market after the holiday. In the medium term, the current bull market is expected to continue, supported by ample micro liquidity in the stock market and policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market. Although economic data remains weak, the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, improving long-term profit expectations for A-shares [2] Key Focus Areas 1) The Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cut has been implemented, with increased divergence in future rate cut paths. In September, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with projections indicating a potential further cut of 50 basis points within the year. However, there is significant internal disagreement among Fed officials regarding future cuts, with some expecting two more cuts in 2025, while others foresee no further cuts [3] 2) The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies is gradually becoming evident, with industrial profits rebounding in August, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%. The cumulative growth rate improved from -1.7% in July to 0.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed a narrowing decline, marking the first contraction since March [4] 3) The technology sector is experiencing significant catalysts, with high growth expectations for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) profits. The AI-driven technological wave is accelerating across various fields, with global tech giants increasing capital expenditure in AI, validating high growth expectations for leading companies [4] 4) Liquidity in the A-share market remains ample, with non-bank deposits increasing by 55 billion yuan year-on-year in August. The preference for passive investment products is growing among residents, with stock ETFs seeing rapid asset value expansion [5]