居民存款定期化趋势开始收敛，商业银行净息差下行将变缓

Group 1 - The trend of residents' deposits becoming more time-bound is a significant phenomenon in the banking sector, but this trend is slowing down due to declining deposit rates and banks' cost-cutting measures [2] - From January to August 2024, residents' demand deposits increased by 5.202 billion yuan (1.3%), while time deposits rose by 76.391 billion yuan (7.7%), indicating a serious trend towards time deposits [2] - In 2025, residents' demand deposits decreased by 18.404 billion yuan (4.2%), while time deposits increased by 60.940 billion yuan (5.4%), showing that the trend towards time deposits continues but at a slower pace [2] Group 2 - For enterprises, the deposit structure shows a different trend; from January to August 2024, enterprise demand deposits decreased by 57.468 billion yuan (22.8%), while time deposits increased by 17.073 billion yuan (3.1%) [4] - In 2025, enterprise demand deposits increased by 8.798 billion yuan (4.4%), while time deposits slightly decreased by 0.947 billion yuan (0.16%), indicating a reversal of the time deposit trend for enterprises [5] - The significant increase in enterprise demand deposits this year is attributed to government bond issuance, which alleviated corporate debt pressure, allowing companies to invest more [6] Group 3 - The continuous decline in time deposit rates has led to an inverted yield curve, with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates, prompting banks to reduce time deposits to lower funding costs and improve net interest margins [6] - The average net interest margin of 58 listed banks has declined for five consecutive years, reaching 1.52% in 2024, with further narrowing to 1.43% in the first quarter of this year [6] - Although the rate of decline in net interest margins may slow, the downward trend is expected to continue [7]