Microsoft Stock Keeps Beating the Stock Market. Time to Buy?

Core Growth Engines - Microsoft has transformed from a slow-growth company to a significant growth stock under CEO Satya Nadella, with an investment of $10,000 in 2014 now worth $140,000 [1][2] - The company's strategic shift to a "mobile first, cloud first" approach has been pivotal in its growth, moving from traditional software to cloud-based services and AI integration [5][6] Financial Performance - From fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025, Microsoft achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% in revenue, with gross margin increasing from 64.7% to 68.8% and earnings per share (EPS) growing at a CAGR of 5% [7] - Analysts project revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 16%, respectively, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, driven by the expansion of cloud and AI markets [9] Market Position - Microsoft Azure is now the second-largest cloud infrastructure platform globally, and its Office suite, rebranded as Microsoft 365, holds a near-duopoly in the productivity software market [8] - The company has significant cash reserves of $94.6 billion, providing flexibility for acquisitions or share buybacks [10] Competitive Landscape - Microsoft faces strong competition from Amazon and Google in the cloud and AI sectors but is well-positioned to attract large enterprises competing in e-commerce, streaming, and digital advertising [10] - The Xbox gaming division, bolstered by acquisitions like Activision Blizzard, is expected to generate recurring revenues through services like Game Pass and Cloud Gaming [10] Investment Outlook - Despite a high valuation at 33 times this year's earnings, the growth potential in cloud and AI may justify the price, with a projected stock price increase of about 26% to $645 by fiscal 2028 [11] - The stock is considered a solid long-term investment, likely outperforming the S&P 500's average annual return of 10% [12]