从LV到临期食品：中产消费的十年轮回

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China, which experienced rapid growth a decade ago, is now facing a downturn, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by major brands like LVMH [3][4][5] - In contrast, the market for near-expiry food products is witnessing explosive growth, with a projected market size exceeding 40 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of nearly 6% [4][10] Group 1: Luxury Goods Market Decline - In 2015, China's luxury goods market reached a peak size of 113 billion yuan, contributing significantly to global consumption [1] - By 2025, LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2, with a 15% drop in operating profit and a 22% drop in net profit [3] - Bain & Company revised its forecast for the global luxury goods market, predicting a potential decline of 2% to 5% in sales for 2025 [3] Group 2: Rise of Near-Expiry Food Products - The near-expiry food market in China is projected to surpass 40 billion yuan this year, driven by a shift in consumer attitudes towards more practical and cost-effective purchasing [4][10] - The rapid expansion of near-expiry food chains, such as Haotemai, reflects a growing consumer preference for value-oriented shopping [4] - The trend indicates a fundamental change in consumer behavior from ostentatious luxury spending to rational and pragmatic consumption [4][10] Group 3: Changing Consumer Psychology - The shift in consumer behavior is attributed to a deep transformation in the consumption psychology of the middle class, moving from conspicuous consumption to practical spending [5][10] - The middle class's debt levels have risen above 50%, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and practical consumption dominating their purchasing decisions [5] - The economic environment has shifted from rapid growth to a more cautious approach, influencing consumer habits and preferences [7] Group 4: Generational Shift in Consumption - The primary consumers of luxury goods have shifted from the older generations (70s and 80s) to Generation Z, who prioritize cultural identity and self-expression over brand logos [8] - By 2025, online penetration of luxury goods is expected to reach 46%, with Generation Z accounting for 72% of transactions [8] - The second-hand luxury market is projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift towards circular consumption and away from new luxury purchases [8] Group 5: Future Trends in Consumption - The rise of near-expiry food signifies a new trend in middle-class consumption, emphasizing quality-price ratio and sustainable practices [10][11] - Future consumption patterns are expected to focus on experiential spending, with increased interest in high-end travel and cultural entertainment [10] - Companies are encouraged to adapt to the "new pragmatism" in consumer behavior, focusing on quality and value in their offerings [11]