BHP(US:BHP) Benzingaยท2025-09-28 14:16Core Insights - Commodities like gold and silver are performing well, but nature-related risks could reduce sector earnings by up to 25% [1] - The mining sector is particularly vulnerable to biodiversity and ecosystem challenges, which may alter operational practices [1][4] Industry Challenges - The report highlights a conflict between rising commodity demand and increasing environmental scrutiny, particularly for copper, nickel, and lithium, which are essential for electrification and renewable energy [3] - Mining is highly exposed to nature-related risks due to its reliance on ecosystems for resources like land and water, with potential operational and financial strains if these risks are not managed [4] Future Projections - The number of people facing potential water scarcity is expected to rise from 1.9 billion (27% of the global population) in the early 2010s to between 2.7 billion and 3.2 billion by 2050, representing a 42%-95% increase [5] - The current commodity cycle is uneven, with industrial metal prices remaining volatile and demand expectations fluctuating due to global growth and tariff policies [6] Operational Implications - A downturn in earnings linked to nature-related risks could disrupt the fragile balance in the mining sector, especially as mine development typically requires long timelines [7] - The growing long-term demand for green metals may be constrained by the sector's vulnerability to environmental pressures, creating a dilemma for the green energy transition [8] Risk Management Framework - Barclays suggests the LEAP framework (Locate, Evaluate, Assess, Prepare) as a structured approach for investors to quantify and manage nature-related risks, which include not only immediate costs but also reputational damage and regulatory sanctions [8] Conclusion - Addressing nature-related risks is crucial for protecting shareholder value and ensuring the success of the green transition [9]