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管涛:完善国债公开市场操作需增加短债供给 | 立方大家谈
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-28 15:04

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's monetary policy and its relationship with exchange rate policy, emphasizing the need for increased issuance of short-term government bonds to enhance the independence of the central bank's monetary policy [1][11]. Group 1: Historical Context of Monetary Policy - Before the "8·11" exchange rate reform in 2015, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) used foreign exchange reserves to prevent rapid appreciation of the RMB, which limited its monetary policy autonomy [1][3]. - Following the "8·11" reform, the PBOC shifted to a more neutral exchange rate policy, reducing its intervention in the foreign exchange market and focusing on domestic credit channels for monetary supply [1][6]. - The ratio of new foreign exchange reserves to new base money supply was significantly high during various periods, indicating a reliance on foreign exchange reserves for monetary control, which weakened the independence of the PBOC's monetary policy [3][4][10]. Group 2: Current Monetary Policy Challenges - The PBOC's monetary policy has been constrained by a lack of short-term government bonds, which are essential for effective open market operations [12][14]. - Recent measures to adjust interest rates and reserve requirements have not fully addressed the challenges posed by the current lending environment, where banks are cautious about lending [12][15]. - The introduction of government bond trading in the open market is seen as a step towards improving liquidity management, but the current supply of short-term bonds remains insufficient [13][14]. Group 3: Future Directions - There is a growing recognition of the need to issue more short-term government bonds to facilitate the PBOC's monetary policy operations and enhance its ability to manage liquidity effectively [11][15]. - The collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC aims to explore the reintroduction of net purchases of government bonds, which could improve market conditions and support monetary policy objectives [14][15].