富国观市丨持股过节还是持币过节？

Part 1: A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market saw most major indices close in the green this week, with the STAR Market particularly strong due to semiconductor sector stimulation, while broader indices like the Shanghai Composite Index had limited gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.96%, and the STAR Market surged by 6.47%. Growth and cyclical stocks performed relatively well, while consumer and stable sectors lagged [1][4] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers included power equipment (3.86%), non-ferrous metals (3.52%), and electronics (3.51%), while social services (-5.92%) and retail (-4.32%) were among the worst performers [1] - Notable concept sectors included semiconductor silicon wafers (13.06%) and semiconductor equipment (11.22%), while tourism (-8.39%) and circuit boards (-4.89%) faced declines [1] Part 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a "calendar effect" around the National Day holiday, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to decline before the holiday and rebound afterward [4][5] - The market's trading volume remains above 2 trillion yuan but has shown a marginal decline, influenced by holiday effects and a lack of clear catalysts [4] - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment figures, may further adjust market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5] - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a key focus, driven by liquidity and positive fundamentals, despite recent adjustments [6][7] Part 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market faced collective declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.57% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.58%, primarily due to tariff impacts and market risk aversion [10][14] - The recent U.S. tariff announcements have raised concerns about trade tensions, particularly affecting sectors like construction and pharmaceuticals, although the core drivers of the Hong Kong market remain focused on domestic economic recovery and global liquidity [15][16] - Despite the tariff-induced volatility, there is a strong inflow of southbound capital, indicating long-term confidence in Hong Kong stocks [15][16] Part 4: Upcoming Macro Events - Key macroeconomic indicators to watch include China's official manufacturing PMI for September, expected at 50.1, and various U.S. employment data releases [17]