新政权面临的经济挑战

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Thailand's economy is showing signs of recovery but faces significant challenges that need to be addressed by the new government and its economic team [1] - InnovestX predicts a more severe economic slowdown in the fourth quarter, potentially lasting until mid-2026, with growth rates possibly falling below 1% over the next four quarters, leading to an annual GDP growth rate of only 1.8% this year and 1.4% next year [1] - The Thai government, led by Anutin, faces two major risks: the continued appreciation of the Thai Baht, which has risen 6.4% this year, and the potential fiscal crisis following Fitch's downgrade of Thailand's sovereign credit rating from "stable" to "negative" [1] Group 2 - InnovestX highlights that the key issue is fiscal problems, as government revenue growth is not keeping pace with expenditure growth, leading to an expanding fiscal deficit [2] - Two fiscal indicators show increasing risk: public debt has reached 65.4%, nearing the GDP threshold of 70%, and tax revenue growth has decreased from 3.2% last year to 1.2% [2] - The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is stable at 4.3%, down from 4.6% last year, and the interest burden relative to fiscal revenue is at 8.6%, below the investment-grade standard of 10% [2] Group 3 - The Finance Minister has proposed a plan to stimulate the economy in the short term and enhance revenue-generating capacity in the long term through various measures [3] - The "Khon La Krueng Plus" co-payment scheme offers tax benefits and helps businesses enhance their e-commerce capabilities, while also reforming government revenue without legal changes and establishing a new medium-term fiscal framework [3] - InnovestX views this plan positively for its potential to provide short-term economic stimulus and long-term investment growth, but notes concerns about implementation challenges due to the government's limited four-month tenure and its minority status [3]