10月降息稳了？美联储大消息来了，市场已提前押注

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October is almost certain, with market expectations indicating an 85.5% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by weak economic data and a deteriorating job market [1][2][13]. Economic Data and Employment - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, which, while above the Fed's 2% target, shows stability that could allow for a rate cut [2]. - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls declining and the unemployment rate increasing, leading to concerns about the need for a preemptive rate cut [2][3]. Market Expectations - The market has heavily positioned itself for a rate cut, with CME data showing an 85.5% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91.9% expectation for further cuts in December [2][8]. Policy Shift - The Fed's decision-making logic is clear: weak economic data and a declining job market, combined with stable inflation, support a lower interest rate environment [3][12]. - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from combating inflation to addressing economic slowdown, marking a significant transition in monetary policy [12]. Impact on Consumers and Markets - A rate cut in October would likely lower borrowing costs for consumers, potentially stimulating spending and supporting the stock market [4]. - The Fed's cautious approach suggests that the rate cut will not lead to aggressive monetary easing but rather a gradual adjustment based on economic data [6]. Global Implications - The Fed's decision to cut rates will have significant global repercussions, likely weakening the dollar and attracting capital flows into emerging markets [7]. Conclusion - The October rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost a certainty, serving as a preventive measure against potential economic downturns and signaling a critical shift in monetary policy focus [13][14].