牌照信仰正在崩塌？收益法2037万元，市场法1.28亿元，黄河财险股权究竟值多少钱？

Core Viewpoint - The auction of 125 million shares of Huanghe Property Insurance has drawn significant market attention due to a valuation discrepancy of over 100 million yuan between two assessment methods, highlighting the challenges faced by small and medium-sized insurance companies in the current capital market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Valuation Discrepancy - The valuation methods for Huanghe Property Insurance show a stark contrast, with the income approach estimating a value of only 20.37 million yuan, while the market approach values it at 128 million yuan, reflecting a deep-seated confusion in the valuation system for small and medium-sized insurers [2][3]. - The income method focuses on future cash flow generation, suitable for stable and mature businesses, while the market method reflects current market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. - The significant difference in valuations indicates either an excessive market premium for comparable transactions or a weak current profitability outlook for Huanghe Property Insurance [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Since its establishment in 2017, Huanghe Property Insurance has seen its business revenue grow from 262 million yuan in 2018 to an expected 1.504 billion yuan in 2024, but it has accumulated losses of 250 million yuan due to ongoing underwriting losses and a high combined cost ratio of 109.92% [3][6]. - The company's average premium per vehicle increased by over 300 yuan to 1958.52 yuan, yet the combined loss ratio rose by 6.01 percentage points to 72.41%, indicating that rising premiums are insufficient to offset increasing claims [6][7]. Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - The auction reflects broader challenges faced by small and medium-sized insurers, including homogenized business models, intense competition in auto insurance, and declining investment returns [6][7]. - The current regulatory environment and increasing market concentration are pushing smaller firms into a dilemma of either scaling up without profitability or struggling to survive without growth [7][8]. - The auction's outcome will serve as a practical test of the valuation logic for such insurers, with a potential failure to sell indicating a need for a reassessment of the valuation framework in the industry [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Directions - The new management team at Huanghe Property Insurance is expected to focus on differentiation in niche markets, such as engineering and agricultural insurance, leveraging local resources to create competitive advantages [9][10]. - The insurance industry is shifting from a scale-driven approach to one focused on quality and efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of how small insurers can sustain themselves in a challenging environment [10][11]. - The future success of Huanghe Property Insurance will depend on its ability to align its license value with operational capabilities, moving away from reliance on "shell value" to a focus on genuine operational strength [8][11].