KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-28 21:25Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been fluctuating downwards, with 10 out of the last 11 trading days showing a decline, raising concerns about its future investment value [2] - Dong Yongping has frequently commented on Guizhou Moutai, suggesting that the DCF model can be used to estimate its investment value due to fewer variables involved [3][4] - According to a DCF calculation with a 10% discount rate, Guizhou Moutai's current market value of 1.80 trillion yuan aligns closely with the estimated intrinsic value of 1.77 trillion yuan, indicating that the market has reasonably priced its long-term value [3] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 89.4 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and a net profit of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year, despite a challenging industry backdrop [4] - The stock price of Guizhou Moutai has seen a decline of nearly 6% since September 12 [4] - Recent inflows into wine-themed ETFs indicate a renewed interest in the high-end liquor sector, with significant net subscriptions recorded [6][8] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that while the overall consumption sentiment remains weaker compared to the previous year, the white liquor sector's valuation has improved since late June, primarily due to liquidity enhancements rather than fundamental improvements [8] - The industry is expected to focus on inventory reduction through product upgrades and market expansion, which may enhance long-term investment returns [9] - The white liquor sector is anticipated to benefit from market corrections, especially when growth stocks experience pullbacks, suggesting potential relative returns [8][9]