10年数据：国庆节后A股上涨概率70%

Market Trends - Historical data indicates that the first trading day after the National Day holiday shows a 70% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising [1] - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded a 60% probability of rising in the first five trading days after the holiday [1] Historical Performance - In the last ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced five years of gains and five years of losses in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index has seen seven years of gains and three years of losses [2] - The average performance of the Shanghai Composite Index in October has varied, with a peak increase of 10.80% in 2015 and a decline of -7.75% in 2018 [3] Sector Performance - Post-holiday, sectors such as Computer, Communication, and Electronics have shown a high probability of rising, with the Computer sector having a 90% probability of gains in the first week after the holiday [4] - The Banking and Non-Banking Financial sectors also maintain a high probability of rising in the weeks following the holiday [4] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that investors should consider sectors with upward trends such as Electronics, Communication, and Machinery, as well as sectors with improving fundamentals like New Energy and Innovative Pharmaceuticals [5][6] - The current market sentiment is positive, with active trading and a rebound in investor participation, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend in A-shares [6]