Calumet, Inc. (CLMT): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) is viewed positively due to its diversified business model and operational improvements, with a current share price of $18.66 as of September 22nd [1][2] Business Segments - CLMT operates three core businesses: Specialty Products & Solutions (SPS), Performance Brands (PB), and Montana/Renewables (MRL), with SPS and PB generating mid-cycle EBITDA of approximately $285 million [2] - The SPS and PB segments are valued at an estimated $2.3 billion EV, translating to about $13 per share, while MRL has an EV of $1.1 billion [2] Financial Performance and Projections - MRL's current EBITDA stands at $65 million, but there are catalysts that could increase it to over $300 million, driven by political support for biofuels and capacity expansion under the MAXSAF program [3] - The upcoming production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to yield a margin premium of $1–$2 per gallon over renewable diesel, enhancing MRL's profitability [3] Regulatory Environment - Regulatory support, including favorable Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing and reduced RIN obligations for CLMT, could significantly enhance the company's valuation [4] - If favorable scenarios unfold, the total company valuation using an 8x EBITDA multiple could exceed $30 per share, indicating substantial upside potential from the current price of $17 [4] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The stock price of CLMT has appreciated approximately 88% since a previous bullish thesis in April 2025, which highlighted biodiesel margin inflection and MRL's feedstock advantage [5] - Current operational improvements in SPS and PB, along with the impact of SAF and MAXSAF capacity on long-term EBITDA, continue to support a bullish outlook for the company [5]