Core Thesis - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) is viewed positively due to its diversified business model and operational improvements, with a current share price of $18.66 as of September 22nd [1][2] Business Segments - CLMT operates three core businesses: Specialty Products & Solutions (SPS), Performance Brands (PB), and Montana/Renewables (MRL), with SPS and PB generating mid-cycle EBITDA of approximately $285 million [2] - The SPS and PB segments are valued at an estimated $2.3 billion EV, translating to about $13 per share, while MRL has an EV of $1.1 billion [2] Financial Performance and Projections - MRL's current EBITDA stands at $65 million, but there are catalysts that could increase it to over $300 million, driven by political support for biofuels and capacity expansion under the MAXSAF program [3] - The upcoming production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to yield a margin premium of $1–$2 per gallon over renewable diesel, enhancing MRL's profitability [3] Regulatory Environment - Regulatory support, including favorable Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing and reduced RIN obligations for CLMT, could significantly enhance the company's valuation [4] - If favorable scenarios unfold, the total company valuation using an 8x EBITDA multiple could exceed $30 per share, indicating substantial upside potential from the current price of $17 [4] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The stock price of CLMT has appreciated approximately 88% since a previous bullish thesis in April 2025, which highlighted biodiesel margin inflection and MRL's feedstock advantage [5] - Current operational improvements in SPS and PB, along with the impact of SAF and MAXSAF capacity on long-term EBITDA, continue to support a bullish outlook for the company [5]

Group 1 - Calumet Specialty Products (NASDAQ: CLMT) reported better than expected results for June, indicating strong performance [1] - The company guided breakeven costs for MRL at unprecedented values, surpassing best-in-class benchmarks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Calumet, Inc. has successfully received full or partial exemptions for all petitions filed with the EPA from 2019 to 2024, significantly reducing its Renewable Identification Number (RIN) liability from 396 million to 89 million RINs, which is a substantial relief for the company and the renewable fuels industry [2][3]. Company Summary - Calumet, Inc. manufactures and markets a diverse range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels across various consumer and industrial markets, operating twelve facilities in North America [4]. Industry Impact - The EPA's recent ruling is seen as a positive step towards resolving the historical backlog in the renewable fuels industry, providing clarity and supporting the role of small refiners and biofuels in enhancing America's energy independence [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $76.5 million for Q2 2025, with $8.3 million generated from Montana Renewables, indicating strong performance despite a full month turnaround at the Shreveport facility [5][10][28] - Operating costs were reduced by $42 million in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, despite a $7 million increase in natural gas and electricity costs [8][24] - Specialty product margins increased to over $66 per barrel, reflecting improved operational efficiency [24][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Specialty Products and Solutions segment generated $66.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, with sales volume exceeding 20,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter [24][26] - The Performance Brands segment reported $13.5 million in adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong volume growth, particularly in the TruFuel brand [27] - Montana Renewables segment adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was $16.3 million, up from $8.7 million in the prior year, showcasing resilience in a challenging market [28][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewable diesel industry is currently facing low quarterly index margins, but Montana Renewables managed to generate positive adjusted EBITDA due to its competitive advantages [10][14] - The proposed Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2026 is expected to increase demand for biomass-based diesel, potentially leading to improved margins [19][20][76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging and managing its debt, with a target of reaching $800 million in restricted group debt [22][40] - The MAX SAF 150 project is on track to start in 2026, aiming to produce 120 million to 150 million annual gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [12][31] - The company is actively pursuing monetization of production tax credits, with expectations of completing these transactions in the near future [66][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the renewable diesel market, anticipating margin recovery as regulatory clarity improves [73][76] - The company is optimistic about the potential for increased production and improved margins in 2026, contingent on the finalization of the RVO [19][76] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced operational costs and improved efficiency, with a focus on water treatment and operational learning [46][48] - The company does not expect tariffs to significantly impact its specialties business due to its U.S.-based manufacturing and supply chain [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the updated thoughts on mid-cycle earnings for renewable diesel? - Management indicated that mid-cycle earnings could return to historical levels of $1.50 to $2.00 per gallon index margin, with potential adjusted EBITDA of $140 million to $150 million at $1.50 margins [35][36] Question: Can you discuss the path to further debt pay down and potential future divestitures? - Management highlighted that they have made significant progress on debt reduction and are considering strategic asset sales as part of their deleveraging strategy [39][40] Question: What types of improvements have driven cost reductions in operations? - Management noted that significant improvements in water treatment and operational efficiency have contributed to reduced costs [46][48] Question: How does the company view the attractiveness of different regions for SAF? - Management emphasized the flexibility to serve various markets, including the Midwest and California, and highlighted the potential for partnerships in Canada [50][54] Question: What is the status of PTC monetization? - Management confirmed that they are in the process of finalizing term sheets for PTCs and expect to complete these transactions soon [66][91]

Financial Performance - Calumet's Q2'25 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes was $76.5 million[6], compared to $74.8 million in Q2'24[6] - Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS) segment achieved Adjusted EBITDA of $66.8 million in Q2'25[6], slightly lower than the $72.7 million in Q2'24[6] - Performance Brands (PB) segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 million in Q2'25[6], compared to $14.1 million in Q2'24[6] - Montana/Renewables (MRL at 87%) segment saw an increase in Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes to $16.3 million in Q2'25[6] from $8.7 million in Q2'24[6] - Montana Renewables generated $0.53 per gallon in Production Tax Credits (PTC), totaling $24.6 million in Q2'25[27] Strategic Initiatives and Regulatory Landscape - The company achieved $42 million year-over-year operating cost reduction in the first half of 2025[6, 7] - Operating costs at Montana Renewables were $0.43 per gallon[6, 7] ($0.51 per gallon including SG&A)[6, 7] - The company issued a partial redemption notice for $80 million of '26 Notes, following a $150 million partial redemption in April[7, 16] - EPA's Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) proposal includes a proposed 5.6 billion gallon requirement for biomass-based diesel[10, 11], up from the current 4.5 billion gallons[10, 11] - Plans are on track to unlock 120 million to 150 million gallons of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) capacity by Q2 2026 ("MaxSAF150") at a capital cost of $20 million to $30 million[6, 15, 33]

Core Insights - Calumet, Inc. reported a net loss of $147.9 million for Q2 2025, compared to a loss of $39.1 million in Q2 2024, reflecting significant challenges in financial performance [3][26] - Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes for Q2 2025 was $76.5 million, showing a slight increase from $74.8 million in the same quarter last year [3][29] - The company achieved approximately $42 million in year-over-year operating cost reductions through disciplined operational execution [3][4] Financial Performance - The total sales volume for Q2 2025 was 88,766 barrels per day, a decrease from 90,242 barrels per day in Q2 2024 [7] - The Specialty Products and Solutions segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $66.8 million in Q2 2025, down from $72.7 million in Q2 2024, attributed to a planned turnaround [2][3] - The Performance Brands segment's Adjusted EBITDA was $13.5 million in Q2 2025, compared to $14.1 million in Q2 2024, reflecting strong margin performance despite the divestiture of the Royal Purple® Industrial business [2][3] Segment Analysis - The Montana/Renewables segment reported Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $16.3 million in Q2 2025, up from $8.7 million in the prior year, benefiting from lower operating costs and record volumes [4][31] - The gross profit (loss) for the Specialty Products and Solutions segment was $(14.9) million in Q2 2025, compared to a profit of $39.1 million in Q2 2024 [3][26] - The Montana/Renewables segment's gross profit (loss) per barrel was $(20.78) in Q2 2025, compared to $(0.18) in Q2 2024, indicating significant challenges in profitability [3][21] Operational Highlights - The company completed a month-long turnaround at its Shreveport facility, which contributed to operational performance improvements [3] - Operating costs at Montana Renewables fell to $0.43 per gallon in Q2 2025, the lowest since the platform's launch, enhancing its competitive position [3][4] - The company is on track to achieve 120–150 million gallons of annualized SAF production by Q2 2026, supported by a favorable regulatory environment [3][4]

Company Overview - Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels to a wide range of consumer-facing and industrial markets [2] - The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, and operates twelve facilities throughout North America [2] Upcoming Events - On September 3rd, 2025, Calumet will attend the Barclays 39th Annual CEO Energy-Power Conference and will hold one-on-one investor meetings [3] - On September 8th, 2025, Calumet will attend the H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference, where it will present and conduct one-on-one investor meetings throughout the day [3]

Core Viewpoint - Calumet, Inc. has extended its asset financing arrangement with Stonebriar, increasing the value of its Shreveport terminal assets to $120 million and providing $80 million in proceeds to reduce outstanding Senior Notes due 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Transaction Details - The new financing arrangement assigns a value of $120 million to the Shreveport terminal assets, up from the previous valuation of $70 million [1]. - The transaction will yield $80 million in proceeds, which will be used to partially redeem $80 million of the outstanding 11.00% Senior Notes due 2026 at par plus accrued interest [1]. - The cost of capital for this transaction is set at 10.75% [1]. Group 2: Company Operations and Management - Todd Borgmann, CEO of Calumet, emphasized the value increase as a result of the Shreveport team's efforts to enhance facility reliability and throughput [2]. - Calumet, Inc. manufactures and markets a range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels across various consumer and industrial markets, operating twelve facilities in North America [3].

Core Viewpoint - Calumet, Inc. plans to report its financial results for the Second Quarter of 2025 on August 8, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 9:00 AM ET [1]. Company Information - Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a diverse range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels for various consumer-facing and industrial markets [3]. - The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, and operates twelve facilities across North America [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes ongoing support for Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMT) and highlights the importance of patience in investment strategies [1] - The author reflects on decades of investment experience, including surviving major market crashes in 1987, 2000, and 2008, indicating a long-term perspective on market fluctuations [1] - The article mentions the use of trading systems developed with TradeStation, suggesting a blend of technical analysis and fundamental investment strategies [1] Group 2 - The author holds a beneficial long position in Calumet, Inc. shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article is presented as an independent opinion, with no external compensation influencing the views expressed [2] - There is a clear distinction made regarding the lack of business relationships with any companies mentioned, reinforcing the independence of the analysis [2]