民生证券：市场降息预期“过热” 美联储或为乐观预期降温

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities emphasizes the need for continued observation of interest rate cut expectations, suggesting that the market's current optimism may be overly aggressive and neglecting potential volatility risks [1][19]. Employment Data Analysis - The report focuses on employment as a key variable that could potentially reverse the interest rate cut expectations if upward revisions occur [2]. - Non-farm payroll data has been increasingly noisy this year due to factors like declining response rates and data collection issues, raising concerns about its accuracy [2][5]. - Historical data indicates that the initial value of non-farm payrolls for August is often revised upward in October, with an 80% probability of upward revision based on the last 20 years [7]. Seasonal Adjustment Mechanism - The seasonal adjustment mechanism used by the Labor Department can amplify short-term fluctuations in non-farm payroll data, particularly during the high volatility months of July and August [5][12]. - The downward adjustment of the overall trend in the CES model after the September annual benchmark revision may limit the downward revision space for the August non-farm payroll data [12]. Comparison with Other Labor Market Indicators - Other labor market indicators, such as ADP employment and PMI employment indices, suggest that the August non-farm payroll may have been underestimated, as these indicators did not show a significant decline [15][16]. Market Implications - The potential upward revision of August non-farm payrolls could significantly influence interest rate cut expectations, similar to the scenario before the Fed's first rate cut last year [19]. - The report warns that if any contrary signals arise, such as rapid inflation or revisions in non-farm data, market volatility could increase, affecting sensitive sectors like growth and cyclical stocks [1][19].