国投证券：A股大牛市：一份全面的体检报告

Core Conclusion - The current A-share bull market shows no clear signs of bubble formation, characterized by "new high in volume, moderate enthusiasm, uneven driving forces, and distinct structural features" [1] Market Overview - The total market capitalization and circulating market value of A-shares have reached historical highs, indicating a significant expansion compared to previous bull markets, but the ratios of circulating market value to GDP and M2 remain in the mid-low range [4][23] - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 12.84, significantly lower than the historical peaks of 27.88 in 2007 and 19.42 in 2015, suggesting that the current market is more reliant on valuation recovery driven by interest rate declines and policy expectations rather than fundamental earnings growth [20][22] Trading Activity - Trading activity is gradually increasing, with the turnover rate and the proportion of rising days not reaching historical highs, indicating that the market is not in an overheated state [4][19] - The proportion of stocks reaching historical highs is only about 10%, which is significantly lower than the levels seen during previous bull market peaks [49] Fund Inflows - The enthusiasm of retail investors remains limited, as evidenced by the lower number of new accounts and fund issuances compared to previous bull markets [23][21] - The financing balance has surpassed the 2015 high but still represents a low proportion of circulating market value, indicating a cautious risk appetite without excessive leverage [46][21] Sector Rotation - The TMT sector has seen increased trading concentration, with its transaction volume exceeding 40%, reflecting a crowded trading environment [51] - The current market breadth is healthy, with no clear signals of divergence between index performance and the number of stocks participating in the rally [4][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "strong oscillation" state around the National Day holiday, with potential transitions from liquidity-driven growth to fundamental-driven growth anticipated in November [5][1] - Historical data suggests that style rotation is not prominent immediately after the National Day, but significant shifts are often observed between Q3 and Q4 [5][2]