从格林斯潘的“非理性繁荣”到鲍威尔“美股估值高”，美联储主席“警示风险”对市场意味着什么？

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chair's warnings about stock market valuations have historically had limited impact on market performance, as indicated by JPMorgan's research [1][4][7] Group 1: Federal Reserve Warnings - The latest warning from Chair Powell highlighted that while stock prices are "fairly high," it does not indicate an increased risk to financial stability [1] - Since 1996, warnings from Federal Reserve Chairs have not led to significant market corrections, with the S&P 500 showing positive returns in the months following these warnings [2][4] - Historical warnings have occurred mainly during periods of loose monetary policy, with various Chairs expressing concerns over asset valuations in different economic contexts [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - JPMorgan's analysis shows that the S&P 500 index had an average return of 0.8% in the month following a warning, with 12-month returns averaging 12.9% [6] - The average market performance in the 12 months following a warning is slightly lower than the 6 months prior, indicating a slowdown in growth but still maintaining an upward trend [5][6] - Excluding periods like the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, U.S. stocks generally outperformed international markets after warnings [5] Group 3: Valuation Context - Current high valuations are supported by strong fundamentals, contrasting with the speculative nature of the late 1990s tech bubble [7] - The report emphasizes that high valuations alone are unlikely to trigger market corrections; macroeconomic weaknesses are more likely catalysts for significant downturns [7] - Traditional valuation assessments may overlook structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in industry composition and the impact of innovations like artificial intelligence [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, JPMorgan anticipates a market rebound driven by factors such as an expanding AI investment cycle, robust capital expenditure, and supportive monetary policy [8]