美银Hartnett：关键指标显示AI还没有风险，警惕美元反弹对热门交易的冲击

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a potential AI bubble is intensifying, but Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that the current credit spreads for tech stocks indicate that the AI-driven rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][2] Group 1: Credit Spreads and AI Bubble - The credit spreads for tech stocks are at an 18-year low, suggesting that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies, contrasting with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios where credit risks rise sharply [2][3] - Hartnett asserts that a comprehensive collapse of the AI sector is unlikely due to the current credit market conditions [2] Group 2: Market Risks and Dollar Strength - The immediate risk for investors is not a bubble burst but rather an unexpected strengthening of the dollar, with a consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" being a significant vulnerability [1][4] - If the dollar index experiences a chaotic rebound and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could trigger a collective risk-averse response among investors [4] Group 3: Asset Performance and Market Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold has been the best-performing asset with a gain of 41.3%, while international stocks rose by 24.7%, and the dollar index fell by 9.2% [4] - Recent EPFR data shows a continued inflow of global funds into various assets, indicating that investors remain optimistic and are actively allocating to risk assets despite discussions of potential market corrections [3] Group 4: Gold's Position in Asset Management - Although gold is currently viewed as "overbought" from a tactical perspective, it remains a "low allocation" asset in both private and institutional asset management, with only 0.4% and 2.4% allocations respectively [5]