行业连续8周去库 “锂”面有啥变化？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry has been experiencing a continuous destocking trend for eight weeks since August, driven by stronger demand growth compared to supply [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate reached 316,000 tons, an increase of 9% month-on-month; battery production was 160 GWh, up 11%; and energy storage battery production was 50 GWh, up 13% [1]. - Cumulatively, demand data from January to August showed a year-on-year growth rate higher than the same period last year [1]. - The traditional peak demand season in September and October is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with demand growth exceeding market expectations [1]. Supply Side Summary - Following the suspension of the Jiangxiawo project by CATL on August 9, domestic lithium carbonate production from the mica source decreased significantly from a peak of 5,000 tons per week to 2,500 tons, but has since rebounded to 2,800 tons after the resumption of Yichun Silver Lithium [2]. - The lithium spodumene source's weekly production increased from 9,000 tons in July to 13,000 tons, compensating for the reduction from the mica source and resulting in a total weekly supply exceeding 20,000 tons, a historical high [2]. - The inventory structure in the lithium carbonate industry is improving, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream inventory increasing. Upstream smelter inventory fell from 51,000 tons to 33,000 tons (a 35% decrease), while downstream inventory rose from 48,000 tons to 61,000 tons (a 27% increase) [2]. Market Dynamics - The purchasing willingness of material manufacturers has increased due to sustained demand, with pre-holiday stocking driving procurement efforts. The inventory cycle for downstream material manufacturers has slightly increased from under 14 days to 15-16 days [3]. - As of September 26, lithium carbonate futures prices remained stable around 73,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.95% [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the destocking trend continues, the overall inventory reduction is limited due to the balance between demand improvement and supply increase [3]. Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after the peak season in September and October. If demand weakens, the industry may shift from destocking to restocking, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. - The upcoming October may see supply disturbances as mining companies enter the certification process, which could lead to a return to a more relaxed supply outlook, putting pressure on lithium carbonate prices [3].