经济学家“最爱”沃勒，却赌哈塞特将接替鲍威尔执掌美联储

Group 1 - A significant majority of economists prefer Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with 82% supporting him, but only 20% believe he will actually succeed Powell in 2026 [2] - The current political pressure from President Trump is influencing the selection process, as he has openly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates aggressively [2][3] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December [2] Group 2 - Waller's stance on interest rates appears more moderate compared to other candidates, as he did not support a larger 50 basis point cut proposed by Milan [3] - The betting markets currently favor Waller as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, followed closely by Hassett [3] - The Treasury Secretary is conducting interviews for the next Fed Chair, with the first round expected to conclude in the coming weeks [4] Group 3 - The next Fed Chair will face challenges in navigating monetary policy amid a weak labor market and inflation pressures exacerbated by Trump's tariffs [4] - Economists are increasingly concerned about the potential for stagflation, where unemployment and inflation rise simultaneously [5] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has historically prioritized employment over inflation, which may complicate future policy decisions [5]