Market Overview - On Monday, the Japanese stock market opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 0.53% [4] - London spot gold prices broke through $3770 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell below $3800 per ounce. Last week, London spot gold saw a cumulative increase of over 2%, and COMEX gold futures rose nearly 1.9% [4] - International oil prices declined on Monday, with WTI crude oil opening down over 1%. Last week, WTI crude oil had a cumulative increase of over 4.5%, while Brent crude oil rose more than 4% [4] - On Friday, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% to 46247.29 points, the Nasdaq up 0.44% to 22484.07 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.59% to 6643.70 points. However, for the week, all three indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow down 0.15%, the Nasdaq down 0.65%, and the S&P 500 down 0.31% [4] International Macro - As of September 29, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.3%. For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 32.2% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 64.9% [5] Institutional Insights - JPMorgan's latest report indicates that while the S&P 500 index may aim for the 7000-point mark by year-end, investors should be cautious of several potential risks that could lead to market volatility. These risks include seasonal factors, excessive rebound magnitude, prolonged lack of correction, overheated retail investor sentiment, and macro events materializing [7] Weekly Outlook - The U.S. will release the September non-farm payroll report this Friday. Prior to this, key data to watch includes the August JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the September ADP private employment data on Wednesday, and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday [8]
9月29日国际晨讯丨俄称普京愿与特朗普在莫斯科会晤 摩根大通提醒美股五大潜在风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-29 00:56