Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-29 01:03Core Insights - The conference focused on the theme "Fluctuations of the RMB Exchange Rate and Expectations of Federal Reserve Policies" [1] - Key speakers included Guan Tao, Chief Economist at Zhongyin Securities, and other experts discussing the implications of U.S. monetary policy on the RMB [1][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD by 2025 due to various factors, including a decline in the USD index by 9.5% in the first nine months of 2023 and improvements in the Chinese economy [3][4] - Factors supporting the RMB include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weakened USD credibility, and positive economic indicators from China [3][4] - The current RMB exchange rate is not significantly deviating from its equilibrium, with no substantial appreciation pressure observed [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2023, which is expected to influence global liquidity and capital flows, benefiting emerging markets including China [6] - The Fed's monetary policy is primarily driven by domestic inflation and employment levels, which may lead to further weakening of the USD [6] - The anticipated slowdown in U.S. capital inflows in Q4 2023 could impact international capital confidence in USD assets, affecting the RMB exchange rate [6] Group 3: International Monetary System Challenges - The international monetary system faces challenges from geopolitical tensions, the rise of credit currencies, and the need for reform in response to technological advancements [8] - Future reforms may include promoting a more stable monetary system, enhancing cross-border payment efficiency, and exploring the role of sovereign currencies [8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policies are ultimately aimed at maximizing U.S. interests, balancing domestic and global economic considerations [8]