Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. monthly employment report is critical for investors in U.S. Treasuries, as it may influence confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in October [1] - Recent economic data has shown stronger-than-expected results, leading traders to reduce bets on further easing from the Federal Reserve, despite an 80% probability of a rate cut at the October 28-29 meeting [1][2] - The employment report is seen as a key driver for U.S. Treasury yields, with a need for sufficiently weak data to further lower yields, as indicated by investment manager James Athey [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.2% after hitting a five-month low of just below 4% on September 17, influenced by a drop in initial jobless claims and strong second-quarter economic growth [2] - The bond market has been buoyed by the Federal Reserve's adjustments to interest rates in response to a weak labor market, with U.S. Treasuries up 5.1% year-to-date, on track for the best performance since 2020 [2] - The upcoming employment report is expected to show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from the previous three-month average of less than 30,000 [2] Group 3 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns over tariff-driven inflation and opposed calls for preemptive multiple rate cuts, while Michelle Bowman argued for further cuts due to a weakening job market [3] - Market positioning reflects a divide, with some traders betting on a decline in the 10-year yield to 4% by the end of November, while others increase short positions in Treasuries [3] - Vanguard's global head of fixed income noted a balance between the downside risks from labor market weakness and the upside risks from improving economic growth, indicating a preference for buying bonds if yields rise to the higher end of recent ranges [3]
美债交易员降息信心面临考验 美国非农就业和政府停摆风险将是关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-29 02:25