澳央行本周或维持3.6%利率不变 通胀上行+就业紧张限制后续降息空间

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% this week, with economists predicting a single rate cut in November, followed by a prolonged pause until Q3 2026 [1][2] - There is a divergence in institutional forecasts, with Westpac and Bloomberg holding a dovish stance predicting rates below 3% next year, while the National Australia Bank maintains a hawkish outlook expecting stability until May 2026 [1] - RBA Governor Michele Bullock's upcoming press conference is anticipated to emphasize a "data-dependent" and cautious policy approach [1] Group 2 - Post-pandemic, the RBA has attempted to balance "job preservation" and "price control," but renewed price pressures raise concerns, especially given the backdrop of anticipated multiple rate cuts [2] - The six-month annualized core inflation rate in Australia has surpassed that of other major economies, which may raise the threshold for rate cuts and attract capital inflows, supporting the Australian dollar and bond yields [4] - Despite claims of good progress in controlling inflation, recent monthly inflation indicators have accelerated to the upper limit of the RBA's 2%-3% target, driven by housing, food, and alcohol prices [7] Group 3 - Economists warn that rapid inflation data suggests rising price pressures, particularly in the services sector, leading institutions like NAB and Deutsche Bank to abandon predictions for a fourth rate cut this year [7] - The RBA's upcoming policy statement will be closely monitored for changes in language regarding price pressures, labor market weakness, and wage inflation [7] - The RBA will release its semi-annual financial stability assessment two days after the rate decision, which may provide further policy insights [7]