央行不再提“加力实施增量政策”，四季度还会降息吗？

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the execution and effect of monetary policy measures without providing guidance for new easing measures, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments based on economic growth momentum and price trends [1][9]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The PBOC's recent meeting highlighted three main changes in monetary policy expression: the shift from "maintaining" to "promoting" economic stability and reasonable price levels, indicating a stronger desire for economic growth [4][10]. - The meeting emphasized the execution of existing monetary policies and the need to fully release their effects, rather than focusing on new easing measures, suggesting that further easing is not urgent [9][10]. - The PBOC aims to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in its monetary policy approach [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The external environment is described as increasingly complex and severe, with weakened growth momentum and rising trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows signs of improvement [2][10]. - The PBOC acknowledges challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, but has removed the term "sustained" from previous statements regarding low inflation, reflecting a slight recovery in core CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI [7][10]. - Recent data indicates that from January to August 2025, the core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9%, with a month-on-month increase from July's -0.2% to 0% in August [7][10]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The meeting reiterated support for small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade, indicating a renewed focus on external environment uncertainties as key decision variables for monetary policy [11][13]. - The PBOC continues to emphasize the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing the effectiveness of existing financial policies, with no significant changes in the approach compared to previous meetings [13].