邓正红能源软实力：当前油价困局是产油国在“硬供应”与“软控制”之间的失衡

Core Insights - The market is concerned about oversupply in the second half of the year, which is putting pressure on oil prices and the soft power of oil-producing countries [1] - OPEC is likely to approve an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in the upcoming meeting, following a trend of increasing production since April [1][2] - The increase in production aims to capture market share and respond to U.S. pressure to lower oil prices [1][2] Group 1: OPEC's Production Strategy - Since April, OPEC has abandoned its production cut strategy, raising daily production quotas by over 2.5 million barrels, which is about 2.4% of global demand [1] - The upcoming online meeting on October 5 will determine the production plan for November, with a focus on balancing market share and oil prices [3] - Continuous production increases may dilute the scarcity created by previous cuts, leading to a negative cycle of "high production, low prices" [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Geopolitical Factors - Oil prices fluctuated between $60 and $70 per barrel since April, but spiked above $70 following the September 27 attack on Russian energy infrastructure [1][2] - The geopolitical risk premium can temporarily offset concerns about oversupply, as evidenced by the price surge after the attack [2] - The structural contradiction of "rigid oversupply" and "elastic shortage" in the global supply chain was highlighted by the damage to Russian refining capacity [2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - OPEC should link production quotas to refining capacity to avoid diminishing returns from crude production increases [3] - Establishing a "geopolitical risk hedging capacity pool" could allow for temporary production cuts in response to geopolitical events [3] - Implementing blockchain technology for real-time transparency in production data could help rebuild market trust [3] Group 4: Future Trends and Insights - OPEC's continued production increases may trigger a shift from traditional energy security models to new paradigms dominated by digital rules [3] - The current oil price fluctuation range reflects the balance of resilience in Russian infrastructure and the deterrent effect of EU sanctions [3] - The "energy soft power matrix" proposed by Deng Zhenghong could provide new pathways to address the oversupply dilemma [3]