Xuan Gu Bao·2025-09-29 03:30Market Overview - On September 29, methanol and green methanol concepts surged, with Donghua Technology achieving two consecutive trading limits, and Changhua Chemical and Fuke Environmental Protection hitting the daily limit [1] Policy Developments - On September 25, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasizing the promotion of green ammonia and green alcohol in the marine fuel market and accelerating the improvement of green product certification [2] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to officially adopt its first industry-wide "IMO Net Zero Framework" in October 2025, which includes mandatory marine fuel standards, emission restrictions, and carbon pricing mechanisms. Starting in 2027, this framework will be enforced for large ocean-going vessels over 5,000 gross tons, which account for approximately 85% of international shipping CO2 emissions, aiming for net-zero emissions in the global shipping industry by 2050 [2] - Goldwind Technology announced on September 9 plans to sign an investment development agreement for a wind power hydrogen ammonia methanol integration project with the People's Government of Bayannaoer City, with a total investment of approximately 18.92 billion yuan. The project plans to build 3GW of wind power, with over 80% of the generated electricity used for electrolysis to produce green hydrogen, resulting in the production of 600,000 tons of green methanol and 400,000 tons of green ammonia annually [2] Institutional Insights - Methanol has advantages over other fuels, including flexible storage and refueling, low cost per unit of heat value, complete storage infrastructure, low ship modification costs, and environmental friendliness, making it a primary choice for long-term green transformation in shipyards. However, short-term supply and cost issues for green alcohol may limit its adoption, with LNG serving as a transitional option. Currently, there are at least 320 orders for methanol-fueled vessels, primarily container ships, with a concentrated delivery period expected to begin in 2026. The global methanol consumption in 2024 is projected to be approximately 140 million tons, with green alcohol demand from marine fuel estimated at 500-600 million tons. If the penetration rate of methanol as marine fuel reaches 10% by 2030, it is expected to drive global methanol demand growth by over 40% [3] - The high growth in green alcohol demand will simultaneously drive green hydrogen consumption, creating opportunities during the supply-demand imbalance. Approximately 300 green methanol-fueled vessels are expected to be operational, which will lead to a demand for about 6.8 million tons of green methanol, corresponding to a green hydrogen consumption of 750,000 to 1.3 million tons. Currently, the operational capacity of green hydrogen projects is around 1.8 million tons, and the commissioning of methanol vessels will consume 42%-72% of this capacity, facilitating downstream applications for green hydrogen [3] - The construction cycle for major green alcohol projects is 1-2 years, aligning with the operational cycle of green methanol vessels (27 years after the IMO net-zero framework policy takes effect). It is anticipated that from the second half of 2025, existing but unstarted green hydrogen ammonia methanol projects will accelerate construction, driving demand for upstream hydrogen production equipment. Additionally, the increased penetration of green hydrogen in other sectors will further boost the demand for green hydrogen equipment, with high elasticity in the equipment segment. Bidding is expected to favor state-owned enterprises and related cooperative enterprises focusing on high-elasticity segments under industry expansion, with green alcohol operators that collaborate with green methanol shipowners and green hydrogen equipment manufacturers set to benefit significantly [4]