Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before Oct. 2?

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock may face a significant correction if it fails to commercialize its robotaxi and humanoid robot soon, despite a 65% increase in stock price over the past year and nearing record highs [1] Group 1: Revenue and Sales Performance - 74% of Tesla's revenue is derived from passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales, including models like Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck [2] - Tesla delivered 720,803 EVs in the first half of 2025, a 13% decrease from the same period last year, resulting in a 14% decline in revenue and a 31% drop in earnings [5] - Wall Street estimates suggest Tesla delivered approximately 445,000 EVs in Q3, reflecting a 3.9% decline year-over-year, although this is an improvement compared to previous quarters [7] Group 2: Competition and Market Share - Tesla's sales in Europe fell by 36% year-over-year in August, while overall EV sales in the region grew by 30%, indicating a loss of market share to competitors [6] - BYD, a China-based competitor, saw its sales triple in Europe during August, appealing to budget-conscious consumers with low-cost EVs [6] Group 3: Product Development and Future Prospects - Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) software is not yet approved for unsupervised use in the U.S., which hampers the launch of the Cybercab robotaxi [9] - Production of the Optimus humanoid robot is expected to start next year, but it may take five years to reach the target output of 1 million units annually [12] - Musk predicts the Optimus platform could generate $10 trillion in revenue over the long term, with humanoids potentially outnumbering humans by 2040 [11] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Tesla's stock has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 244, making it significantly more expensive than the Nasdaq-100 technology index, which has a P/E ratio of 32.6 [14] - The current shrinking earnings make it difficult to justify Tesla's premium valuation compared to other tech giants, leaving the stock vulnerable to potential declines [16]