宏观纵览 | “反内卷”的下一步：盈利改善如何向中下游传导

Core Insights - The recovery of upstream industry prices has been observed, while downstream sectors still require more policy support [2][6] - The "anti-involution" campaign has shown positive results, with expectations for further policy actions to enhance industry health and sustainable development [2][8] Industrial Profit Growth - From January to August, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises turned from a 1.7% decline to a 0.9% increase, marking a significant recovery [3][5] - August saw a notable profit increase of 20.4% compared to July, reversing a previous decline [3][4] - The improvement in industrial profits is attributed to macro policy effectiveness, low base effects, and strong support from the equipment manufacturing sector [3][6] Price Improvement and Its Impact - Price recovery is a key factor in profit growth, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline narrowing to 2.9% in August, the smallest drop since March [4][5] - Specific industries such as coal processing and steel have seen reduced price declines, contributing to the overall PPI improvement [4][6] Downstream Industry Challenges - Despite profit improvements in upstream sectors, downstream industries still face weak demand and operational pressures, indicated by rising inventory levels and extended accounts receivable periods [5][7] - Analysts suggest that targeted policies to stimulate downstream demand, such as expanding consumption incentives, are necessary for broader profit recovery [7][8] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - Continuous policy support is essential for sustaining profit growth, particularly in the context of "anti-involution" measures aimed at reducing excessive competition [7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined specific growth plans for various sectors, including steel and automotive, focusing on governance and competition regulation [9][10]