KVB plus：巴菲特指标狂飙，未来美股将会如何

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Buffett Indicator has surpassed a historical peak of 218%, indicating that the current U.S. stock market is in an unprecedented overvaluation zone [1][3] - The surge in this indicator is primarily driven by large technology companies, which have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in artificial intelligence, leading to record-high market capitalizations [3] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-sales ratio has reached 3.33, exceeding the peak of the internet bubble at 2.27 and the post-pandemic boom period of 3.21 [3] Group 2 - Over the past two decades, the U.S. economy has transitioned from heavy asset reliance to a light asset model, making traditional GDP/GNP statistics inadequate in reflecting the value creation of new production factors like intellectual property and data networks [3] - Supporters argue that in a "knowledge-driven" economy, high valuations are justified, while critics contend that current valuations are excessively detached from fundamentals, even considering structural changes [3][4] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash flow data reveals that as of Q2 2024, the company holds cash reserves of $344.1 billion and has been a net seller in the stock market for 11 consecutive quarters, maintaining a "fortress" balance sheet [3] Group 3 - There is a debate on whether traditional valuation frameworks are inadequate for the digital economy, with some attributing the rise in growth company valuations to increased intangible asset proportions, global capital flows, and a low-interest-rate environment [4] - Historical experience suggests that when valuation indicators reach extreme levels, systemic risks can significantly amplify, regardless of structural changes [4]