Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-29 08:53Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is lackluster, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% despite a month-on-month improvement from July to August [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sales during the 2025 double festival are reported to be flat, with a significant demand gap remaining, particularly in the high-end and sub-high-end segments [1][4]. - The mid-to-low-end liquor sales are performing better than high-end and sub-high-end products, with banquet brands showing faster sales velocity [1][3]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines, while Fenjiu maintains upward momentum with stable pricing [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The recovery of government and business consumption demand is expected to take time, impacting high-end and sub-high-end liquor consumption in the short term [2][4]. - Attention should be focused on supply-side contraction signals from companies post-festival, which could catalyze the sector [2][4]. - Price indicators are anticipated to turn positive in 2026, potentially driving inflation and corporate profitability, leading to a sustained recovery in liquor demand [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies that are relatively healthy and have a positive market atmosphere, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [4]. - Companies that are innovating in channels and models, like Yingjia Gongjiu and Zhenjiu Lidu, are also highlighted as potential growth contributors [4].