10月加息定了？日本央行鸽派委员转向：现在更需要加息

Core Viewpoint - The necessity for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is more urgent than ever, as indicated by BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi, marking a significant hawkish signal from the central bank [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Hike - Strong economic indicators suggest steady progress towards the BOJ's 2% price stability target, increasing the urgency for policy rate adjustments [1][5]. - The swap market pricing indicates a 60% probability of an interest rate hike during the BOJ's meeting on October 29-30, more than double the likelihood from earlier in the month [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Wage Growth - Various inflation expectation indicators are aligning with the BOJ's 2% target, with core inflation remaining above 2% for over three years [6]. - Actual wage growth is lagging, which may impact consumer purchasing power and inflation dynamics, as noted by Noguchi [8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Asset Management - Noguchi advocates for reducing the central bank's balance sheet while ensuring market stability, warning against the risks of excessive quantitative easing [9]. - The upcoming Tankan survey is anticipated to show improved business confidence, serving as a critical reference for the BOJ's economic assessment [6][9].