黄金价格首破3800美元关口，美联储降息预期与地缘风险共振助推

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $3,800 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,814.95, with an increase of approximately 1.43% [1] - The rise in gold prices is supported by the latest U.S. inflation data, which aligns with market expectations, reinforcing investor beliefs that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates within the year [1][2] - The low interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly up from 2.6% in July, meeting market expectations [2] - Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with July's growth and analyst predictions [2] - The market anticipates an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance in December, contributing to a weakening dollar index, which fell approximately 0.28% last week [3] Group 3 - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be closely monitored, as any hawkish comments could strengthen the dollar and exert pressure on dollar-denominated commodity prices [2] - Gold's long-term bullish outlook remains intact, with prices staying above the key 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) [3] - The critical resistance level for gold is between $3,800 and $3,810, with a potential rise to $3,850 if sustained trading occurs above this range [3]