德邦证券：PTA反内卷在即 行业拐点已渐进

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is facing increasing supply-demand contradictions, leading to a compression of product profitability, with many companies experiencing losses. There is a strong demand for improvement in industry profitability, and recent discussions among major PTA companies regarding joint production cuts may help optimize the supply-demand structure [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - PTA capacity in China has rapidly expanded from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to an expected 91.35 million tons by August 2025, with a CAGR of 12.5%. The operating rate has declined to 78% in August 2025, down 12 percentage points from 90% in 2019, indicating a historical low [1]. - The price difference for PTA has narrowed to within 200 yuan/ton as of August 2025, resulting in most companies operating at a loss, highlighting the urgent need for profitability improvement [1]. Group 2: Industry Structure - The PTA industry is highly concentrated, with six companies controlling approximately 75% of the market share. This concentration facilitates a self-regulatory mechanism to avoid disorderly competition, and recent discussions among major companies about joint production cuts may enhance industry collaboration [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Domestic PTA technology has undergone four iterations, leading to larger production units that significantly improve investment costs, energy efficiency, and raw material consumption. New low-cost facilities are expected to push older, smaller, and higher-cost capacities out of the market [3]. - Currently, about 40% of domestic PTA capacity utilizes older technologies (P7 and below), indicating substantial room for structural optimization [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of PTA capacity is nearing its end, with only one additional facility expected to come online in October 2025. The pace of new capacity additions is projected to slow significantly, with a CAGR of only 2.8% over the next three years [4]. - With the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, potential industry collaboration, and accelerated technological upgrades, the PTA market is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity as domestic and international textile and apparel demand stabilizes [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), Xin Feng Ming Group (603225.SH), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ), and Sanfangxiang (600370.SH) [5].