洁雅股份(301108):优质湿巾制造商 国际品牌大客户订单催化业绩拐点

Company - Jieya Co., Ltd. is a high-quality wet wipes manufacturer established in 1999, with major clients including Woolworths, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Babycare, and Dongfang Zhenxuan [1] - The company experienced a decline in orders post-pandemic, with projected 2024 revenue and net profit dropping to 547 million and 19 million respectively, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.50% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 310 million, an 8.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 33 million, a 22.6% increase, with a net profit margin recovering to 10.50% [1] - Jieya has launched a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, aiming to double revenue from 2024 levels over the next three years, indicating strong growth confidence [1] Industry - The global wet wipes market is steadily growing, with a retail market size projected to reach 18.4 billion USD in 2024, a 2.7% year-on-year increase, and the top 10 companies holding a combined market share of 41.3% [2] - In 2024, the retail market sizes for wet wipes in the US and Western Europe are expected to be 6.7 billion and 3.9 billion USD respectively [2] - The Chinese wet wipes market is projected to exceed 12.9 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and the top 10 brands holding a market share of 48.0% [2] Company Performance - Jieya's core business is wet wipes manufacturing, with significant profit recovery since 2025, showing a net profit margin advantage over competitors like Hangzhou Guoguang [3] - The company’s top five clients accounted for 77.6% of revenue in 2024, with international brand clients driving a 46.2% year-on-year growth in foreign sales in the first half of 2025 [3] - The gross profit margin for foreign business in the first half of 2025 was 35.38%, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 6.22% [3] - Jieya is establishing a production base in the US, with a projected capacity of 15 billion wipes annually, enhancing its global competitive edge [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for Jieya from 2025 to 2027 are 77 million, 107 million, and 144 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 297.2%, 38.1%, and 34.7% [4] - As of September 26, 2025, the company's market capitalization is 3.5 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 45, 33, and 24 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4] - Using a comparable company valuation method, Jieya's PEG for 2026 is estimated at 1.16, suggesting a market value of 4.6 billion, with a "buy" rating initiated [4]