特朗普要如愿以偿？中国答应购买美国大豆，但有一个条件

Group 1 - U.S. soybean farmers are facing an unprecedented crisis as China's market share for U.S. soybeans has plummeted from a peak of 34% to less than 5% [1] - The American Soybean Association has issued frequent distress signals as soybean prices continue to decline, with former President Trump calling for China to restore large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans [1][16] - China's Ministry of Commerce has stated that the U.S. must first remove unreasonable tariffs to expand soybean trade, highlighting the core issue of the current U.S.-China trade deadlock [4] Group 2 - The imposition of a 25% retaliatory tariff by China on U.S. soybeans has led to a significant increase in costs, resulting in a projected 28% decline in U.S. soybean exports for 2024 and record-high inventory levels [6] - China has developed a global procurement network with Brazil as the primary supplier, accounting for over 85% of China's soybean imports from January to August 2025 [6][8] - China's self-sufficiency in soybeans has increased by nearly 7 percentage points in 2024, aided by new agricultural cooperation projects and reduced demand for soybeans in animal feed [8] Group 3 - The economic crisis in the U.S. soybean industry is evolving into a political crisis, with a 60% year-on-year decline in U.S. soybean exports to China expected in the second half of 2024, leading to a five-year low in Chicago soybean futures [10] - Bankruptcy applications among farmers in the Midwest have increased by 35%, putting pressure on Republican lawmakers as farmers express dissatisfaction and threaten to change their voting preferences [10][12] - The Trump administration faces a dilemma between maintaining high tariffs to protect U.S. industries and addressing the needs of the farming community, with $12 billion allocated in 2024 as agricultural subsidies [12] Group 4 - The resolution of the U.S.-China soybean trade deadlock hinges on the U.S. government's willingness to remove unreasonable tariffs, as emphasized by China's Ministry of Commerce [14] - The market dynamics suggest that political interventions will lead to mutual losses, and the key to restoring U.S. soybean exports to China lies in rational policy changes from the U.S. [14]