每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-09-29）

Group 1 - HSBC predicts that by 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 4500 points, the CSI 300 Index will reach 5400 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index will reach 16000 points, representing an increase of 17-20% [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that over 90% of roadshow clients expressed willingness to increase exposure to Chinese assets, marking the highest interest since early 2021 [1] - Fidelity International notes a significant increase in global investors' interest in Chinese assets, with hedge funds showing the highest activity in China's stock market in recent years [2] Group 2 - Barclays states that gold prices do not appear overvalued, with gold ETF holdings at their highest since 2022, and prices have surged over 40% this year [2] - Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its cash rate, with a shift towards a less dovish communication stance [3] - Nomura also indicates that volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate may increase due to upcoming data and events [4] Group 3 - CICC suggests that the credit cycle in both China and the US may be approaching turning points, impacting market directions [9] - Guotai Junan emphasizes the importance of the fourth quarter for cyclical industries and high-growth sectors, with a historical tendency for cyclical industries to perform well [11] - Huatai Securities predicts that PPI year-on-year and industrial profits are likely to continue their recovery trend [14]