黄金白银，彻底涨疯了！

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced significant price increases and trading volume surges, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 29, gold futures rose by 1.35% to 866.52 yuan per gram, reaching a historical high, while silver futures surged by 3.92% to 10,939 yuan per kilogram, also hitting a new peak [1] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market increased by 3.6%, indicating strong performance across all related stocks [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX gold prices have increased by nearly 45%, while COMEX silver has risen over 60%, outperforming most commodities and stock markets [11] Group 2: Trading Volume - The combined trading volume of gold and silver futures reached 778 billion yuan, accounting for over one-third of the total A-share market turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan [3] - Gold futures trading volume increased by over 500 billion yuan from the previous day, while silver futures saw a nearly 1 billion yuan increase, marking a 64% rise [1] Group 3: Market Drivers - Recent favorable economic indicators, such as the U.S. core PCE price index remaining at 2.9%, have alleviated concerns about interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market uncertainty, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [4] - The potential U.S. government shutdown could delay key employment data, further complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and increasing demand for precious metals [4] Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with total holdings valued at approximately $4.5 trillion, surpassing the $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [6] - China's central bank has also been actively increasing its gold reserves, with a total of 7.402 million ounces as of August 2025, marking the tenth consecutive month of purchases [8] Group 5: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a more pronounced price increase compared to gold, with a 40% rise since June, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in the solar energy sector [15] - The supply-demand imbalance for silver is at its most acute in a decade, with significant increases in demand from the electric vehicle and semiconductor industries [17][18] - The silver market is characterized by rigid demand growth and limited supply elasticity, with a projected supply deficit of 3,657 tons by 2025 [19][20] Group 6: Investment Sentiment - Institutional forecasts for gold prices have risen, with expectations of reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of the year, and potential scenarios suggesting prices could approach $5,000 per ounce if a small percentage of U.S. Treasury funds flow into gold [14] - Speculative trading in silver has intensified, with non-commercial net long positions increasing significantly, indicating strong market interest [23]