打工人的续命水，快要喝不起了？

Core Insights - The price of coffee cherries in Yunnan has increased nearly threefold over the past year, reaching around 11 yuan per pound, leading many farmers to switch from corn to coffee cultivation [1] - Climate change has significantly impacted the production of Arabica coffee, causing a reduction in suitable growing areas and driving up prices [2][12] - The coffee industry faces challenges from climate instability, which affects both production and the economic viability of smallholder farmers [8][17] Price Dynamics - Coffee cherry prices have surged from 3-5 yuan to approximately 11 yuan per pound within a year, prompting a shift in crop cultivation among farmers [1] - The price of raw coffee beans has also increased, with some reports indicating prices reaching 70-100 yuan per kilogram, compared to 35-40 yuan previously [14] - Despite rising coffee prices, consumers continue to purchase coffee at lower prices due to the relatively small proportion of coffee bean costs in the final product [14][16] Climate Change Impact - Arabica coffee is highly sensitive to climate conditions, with optimal growth requiring average temperatures around 20°C and annual rainfall exceeding 1200mm [8] - Extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts and excessive rainfall, have led to significant production challenges, particularly in major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam [8][12] - Predictions indicate that by 2050, suitable areas for coffee cultivation could decrease by approximately 50% due to climate change [12][18] Smallholder Farmers - Approximately 95% of the world's coffee farms are operated by smallholders, many of whom live below the international poverty line [9][10] - Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as their primary income source is threatened by reduced yields and increased production costs [17] - The coffee value chain is heavily reliant on these small farmers, who contribute about 80% of global coffee production [9][10] Industry Response - Companies like Starbucks are taking steps to ensure sustainable sourcing and reduce their carbon footprint, recognizing the risks posed by climate change [21] - There is a growing need for the coffee industry to adapt by developing more resilient coffee varieties and implementing sustainable agricultural practices [19][20] - The shift towards higher altitude coffee cultivation may become necessary as lower altitude areas become less suitable for Arabica coffee production [18][19]