10月加息信号增强！日本央行鸽派官员“倒戈”，日元、日债收益率走高

Core Viewpoint - The increasing demand for interest rate hikes in Japan is highlighted by a dovish Bank of Japan (BOJ) committee member, indicating a shift in the support for policy action, while still acknowledging existing overseas risks [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Expectations - Asahi Noguchi, a BOJ member, stated that Japan is making steady progress towards its 2% inflation target, suggesting a more urgent need for policy rate adjustments [1] - Following Noguchi's remarks, the Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, and the yield on 10-year government bonds increased, as traders interpreted his comments as a signal for imminent rate hikes [1] - Approximately one-third of economists surveyed expect an increase in borrowing costs at the upcoming policy meeting, reflecting heightened market anticipation for a rate hike [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Swap traders estimate a 60% probability of a rate hike during the October 29-30 meeting, a significant increase from earlier expectations [2] - The key inflation indicators in Japan have remained above 2% for three consecutive years, with second-quarter economic growth surpassing economists' median forecasts [2] Group 3: Policy Considerations and Risks - Noguchi emphasized that the risks to Japan's price levels and economic activity are trending upwards, necessitating a careful evaluation of the current monetary policy [3] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to address the impact of US tariff measures on the domestic and international economy in an upcoming important speech [3] - The political landscape in Japan, particularly the upcoming leadership election in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, could influence the timing of any interest rate adjustments [4]